The Texas primaries run February 17-27, Republicans must decide “Which Kind” of Republicans they want.
Guest article by Mr. Adam Kazmierski.
What happens when you combine the nation’s second largest state budget with one of its lowest primary voter turnouts? The result is a political market inefficiency which every Texas Republican should understand and plan for. With grassroots and establishment Republicans fighting1 for control of the party, primary votes carry unprecedented weight.
Putting a Value on a Texas Primary Vote
Texas’ biennial state budget for 2026-2027 was $338.5 billion.2 About 3.2 million votes were cast in the 2024 primaries, of which 2.3 million were in Republican primaries.3 Each Texas Republican primary vote thus represents more than $147,000 in state spending over the two-year budget cycle, more than Bitcoin has ever been worth. That’s more than California ($39,000 per vote), Florida ($37,000), Illinois ($35,000), and Ohio ($25,000).
Yet only 18% of registered Texans actually voted in the 2024 primary. The 2026 primary could see even lower turnout being a non-presidential year.
An Inverted Relationship
Most general election races in Texas are, in many respects, a formality. In 2022, 146 of 150 state House seats were decided in the primary.4 Only 4 remained competitive in November. This is the key inefficiency. Voter turnout has an inverse relationship with election impact. Nearly three times as many Texans vote in the general election than do in the primary, but they are often merely ratifying the decision that was already made by the fewer voters in the primary.
It goes beyond just the budget. Texas Republican primaries help choose Texas’ U.S. Senator, Governor, Attorney General, and every statewide office. The Legislature and local officials chosen in these primaries determine everything from immigration-related policy and abortion law, to education standards, business regulations, and property tax policy for over 30 million Texans.
In my Texas House district, HD-67, only 17,274 voters participated in the March 2024 Republican primary, which Jeff Leach won by 5,218 votes. In the general election in November 2024, 56,107 Republicans voted,5 but the victor was, for all intents and purposes, already decided in March.
Hence Republican efforts to close primaries to guard against Democrat influence.
Decision Time
Texans looking for outsized influence on the direction of their state have a strategic opportunity. Moneyed interests are already aware of this inefficiency—but they can’t vote. Participating in the Republican primary is far more important than many conservative Texans realize. The election is March 3, 2026, but early voting runs February 17-27.
This is where decisions are made.
Adam Kazmierski is a Texas-based business owner in media production with focuses in politics, healthcare and education. His work has been featured by corporations such as Google, Microsoft, Wal-Mart, Costco. He has been published on Tucker Carlson Tonight, The Daily Wire, The Blaze, Fox News, The American Mind, the Heritage Foundation, among other media publications. He holds an MA in Christian Apologetics from Talbot School of Theology, studying philosophy and theology, and a BS in Business Marketing from Biola University.
This is a guest article. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Texans for Fiscal Responsibility.
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- https://texasscorecard.com/state/new-organization-takes-aim-at-texans-for-lawsuit-reform/ ↩︎
- https://texastaxpayers.com/texas-government-keeps-getting-bigger/ ↩︎
- https://www.texastribune.org/2024/03/03/early-voting-turnout-2024-primaries/ ↩︎
- https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2024/fraction-of-texans-vote-in-primaries/ ↩︎
- https://wylienews.com/2024/11/05/texas-legislature-election-results/ ↩︎
